Crystal ball-gazing is what industry analysts are paid to do. So it came as little surprise when the game community woke up to another prediction of a hardware maker winning the next-generation console contest.

　　The BBC reported this morning that industry analysts Informa Media Group (a subsidiary of the Informa Group, a UK-based media information provider) are predicting that sales of next-generation hardware through 2009 will reach 45 million units. The breakdown, which is for the UK market only, is that the PS3 will post sales of 30 million units, Xbox 2 sales will come in at 10 million, and GameCube 2 sales will tally 5 million.

　　The report stirred up little new dust--it predicted Nintendo would emphasize gameplay, Microsoft would continue to target the hardcore gamer, and Sony would leverage its existing brand recognition. "Sony is set to exploit the lead it established with the PS2," the report's author Toby Scott reported.

　　GameSpot checked in with the Zelos Group's Billy Pidgeon about how the next-gen console wars might rage in the US market. He cautioned against any presumptuous declaration of a winner. "The current generation market leader always has an advantage going into the next generation," Pidgeon said today, "but disruptive technologies or business practices deployed by competitors can reset market shares."

　　American Technology Research analyst P.J. McNealy agreed with the first part of Pidgeon's assessment. "Having an installed base of 98 million original PlayStations, and having another 70-plus million and growing PS2s is a huge advantage over Microsoft, Nintendo, and anyone else who wants to enter the console market."

　　As for the Informa prediction that online gaming will be a key factor, Pidgeon concurred. "Online gameplay and features are a significant differentiator between platforms in this cycle and will be even more important in the next cycle," he said. Pidgeon actually took the online factor one step further, saying that circa 2012 "the console's network and online services will be more important than the console hardware itself."

　　So where will the battle be fought, in the living room or online, and who is likely to dominate? The American analysts were less inclined to draw conclusions. "Even assuming Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo maintain the same strategies in hardware, software, and marketing," Pidgeon says, "it's presumptuous to project that market share will remain constant through 2010. Also, the leader may make significant mistakes in strategy and give away its position to the competition."

　　As UBS analyst Mike Wallace said at last week's D.I.C.E. Summit, "Transition is always tougher than [the companies] think." And while Wallace was referring to transition from the perspective of the software publishers, his statement has resonance for the hardware players as well.

　　If Sony holds any trump card in the console wars, it may be the head start its current installed base gives it. According to McNealy, "Sony's install base is the single biggest challenge for Microsoft, and to a lesser degree, for Nintendo."