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Thorin's threads: 7 post-LCS NA conclusions
Thorin's threads: 7 post-LCS NA conclusions-October 2024
Oct 19, 2024 11:45 AM

  This article was originally published on GameSpot's sister site onGamers.com, which was dedicated to esports coverage.

  As exciting as matches and tournaments are on their own, I always find the context surrounding matches to be a key factor in enhancing the experience of watching the matches unfold. Knowing the historical component of the impact, a win or loss can have on a player's or team's career heightens the excitement. Seeing how individual performances can shape the way we think of players, make the big pressure moment they rise to or fall from only more intense. Thorin's threads picks out key story-lines to follow, with their historical and cultural context explained.

  Here are seven conclusions following the LCS NA playoffs.

  

CLG are not quite ready to become an elite NA team

After underwhelming or downright disappointing in all previous splits, this time around CLG looked like they were legitimately ready to return to the elite echelon of North American professional LoL. Their regular split record spoke for itself, a very respectable 18:10 (64% win-rate) and the potential that it could have been higher, had their German jungler not gotten worked over by homeland security early on in the split. Two five game winning streaks, as well as two MVP awards for Mid laner Link, gave fans plenty of reason to get excited about the new look CLG. A late win over TSM, in week 10, suggested that the eventual semi-final match-up was winnable for the black and white.

  In line with such hopes, the series began with CLG winning the first game. In the second, which could have clinched a finals spot for them, they had an early lead and looked to have the better composition headed deeper into the game. At that point everything went to shit, TSM took over and the rest is history. CLG fans get the satisfaction of claiming they were "so close" to winning the series, while TSM got the actual finals spot and the shot at C9. But in competition, it's not about how close you come to winning, it's only about if you won or not.

  Looking back on CLG's regular season record it makes sense that they should be stuck in third place. While they might have possibly overtaken TSM if they'd had Dexter for the entire split, though TSM themselves lacked Bjergsen for a little while, getting more wins overall wouldn't have necessarily changed their individual match-ups against either of NA's top two teams. CLG went 3:1 against every team outside of the top three, suggesting they are comprehensively better than every other team in NA and have the right style and personnel to at least maintain such a position going forward.

  The problems arise when one looks at CLG's record against the elite two, as CLG went 1:3 against each. Even removing the single loss to both TSM and C9 before Dexter had arrived, they went 1:2 against the two best teams in the region. Factor in that one of those losses to TSM came with that opponent using Reginald, and their regular split record accurately depicts CLG as firmly in third place in NA, potentially a little higher with their regular starting line-up, but not in position to consider themselves ahead of TSM and C9 in terms of the match-up.

  It's all well and good to cite mistakes and nerves, but playoff wins are largely about not making mistakes and not letting nerves overly affect your play. CLG's players have rightfully earned their "potential" label with a history of playing well right until the big game/moment. That's the area in which the team needs an upgrade, it's less a strategical or skill-based conundrum now, more of a psychological one. Will this split's playoff adventure be enough to fix that, for now there's no reason to assume as much. For now, CLG have the potential to become a top two team in terms of regular split wins, but they are still missing the mental component to actually consistently move ahead of TSM and threaten C9.

  

TSM are not the world beaters people thought they were

TSM's old line-up already had plenty of strength at the Top, ADC and Support positions, boasting top two players in each. The addition of Bjergsen, who it was accurately predicted would tear up the Mid position in NA, seemed to be enough to put TSM at the status of being able to dethrone C9 and become the first NA team who could legitimately go head-to-head with the Asian teams in terms of skill. The first part of the split had TSM looking unstoppable, as their opening game loss to C9 was followed by an 11 game winning streak. Even losing their Danish Mid lane star couldn't hold TSM down, going 5:1 over the two weeks they had to play with Reginald standing in.

  When Bjergsen returned in week 9, TSM were sitting on a 17:3 (85%) record. A strong close to the split was not to be, though, as TSM went 3:3 over the last three weeks, losing a chance at first place overall. Winning records over every team but C9 was a very solid performance for the whole split, but it suggested that TSM still needed to overcome the final hurdle that was NA's reigning champions. After escaping the troubling CLG semi-final, TSM were absolutely dismantled by a C9 team that never looked unsure of what to do against NA's dream-team. If C9 could so comprehensively pick apart TSM and deny them any of the advantages they easily exploited against the lesser teams, what hope would there be for TSM against the elite Korean teams?

  Right now TSM looks more in line with a team like Alliance: packed with talent and capable of runs of brilliance, looking as if they've figured out how to exploit their style against anyone, only to fall below that level in the big games. The TSM that were going to be a legitimate threat to SKT K are not here and may never be. For now, TSM still seek more answers than an assassin weidling European Mid laner can give them.

  

C9 are by far the best team in NA

There was legitimate room for debate over who the best team was in NA this split. XDG might like to tell you there had been last split too, but their inability to even get past TSM in those playoffs soon silenced any such imagined debates. TSM were clearly not at the same level as C9 in terms of overall strategy, but they had the brute force and mechanical finesse to potentially beat them regardless, or so it seemed. No team in NA had been able to match TSM in terms of pure skill throughout the season, but C9 were able to consistently out-think them. So it was in the final, as Meteos and company almost seemed to toy with the would-be usurpers.

  C9 know how to win and that is their strongest weapon. At all points of the game they are aware of both their opponents win conditions and their own. When they get leads, they grind those leads out into solid victories. When behind, they minimise their disadvantages, setting up scenarios from which there is the potential to get back into games. C9 are like the San Antonio Spurs of LoL, it doesn't really matter how many star players you bring into the server, their approach is tried and tested and they can confidently fall back on the certainty that in the long run it will get them wins more often than not.

  Dominating another season of LCS NA doesn't really begin to answer any of the questions as to how C9 will match up to or bridge the gap to the world's elite teams, but it doesn't convincingly remind everyone that the best team in North America wears white and blue, without question.

  

Shiphtur still has something to prove to reach superstar status

The hype around Shiphtur this split was with good reason, as the Coast Mid laner repeatedly showed he would not be bullied or beaten in straight up match-ups against anyone. The CST lad was possessed of the kind of skill that could one day see him donning the jersey of a much more prestigious organisation, as much can be easily agreed upon. The problem lies in just how close to superstar status Shiphtur currently is.

  I've always liked Charles Barkley's comment on the NBA that since every team now has a "star player", in as much as each franchise typically has a max contract player, the term "superstar" should be reserved only for the handful of truly elite players out there, who really go above and beyond the level of just being the best player on their team and are right up there for best players in the entire league. If you expand the application of the label too widely, you end up with a muddied mess of 10 superstars. A more reasonable number is usually around five or so.

  In NA it's difficult to boost Shiphtur into the heady category yet, not just because his team doesn't win enough but also because nobody has seen how he would do on a team that is winning. That may initially seem unfair, but it bears further articulation. It has long been a case, as seen in real world sports too, that good players on bad teams can play in such a way as to put up good numbers and have highlight plays, but without necessarily being the best players in the league. A mixture of the contrast between the bad players on their team and their own performance makes them look good immediately, then a style of play which inflates their solo numbers will carry them, seemingly, into the same category as the best players out there.

  As long as ZionSpartan remains a streaky player, it will always be known to a player like Shiphtur that he has to carry his team. The question becomes whether he is always looking to carry them in terms of giving them the best chance to win the game, or if he ever picks champions or situations from which he will individually benefit, but perhaps doesn't take the risks required to win the game if they will cost him his life or his small advantages in a game. I think the jury is still out on that one, the playoffs seemed to suggest it's still a matter to be debated, as Shiphtur didn't play badly, but he also didn't really put himself out there to risk swinging the game into his team's favour.

  In lieu of him actually moving to a bigger team, the next split should help decide whether Shiphtur is firmly moved into the elite category in NA, or whether he benefits from what is otherwise a poor situation team-wise.

  

ZionSpartan's inconsistency holds Coast back

It's much too easy to blame NintendudeX for Coast's wins and overlooked ZionSpartan's inability to carry and its impact on the team. Coast can win games without NintendudeX doing particularly well, but the same cannot be said for Zion. Think of it like a hockey or football team, a defensive player doesn't necessarily have to play above and beyond the average level for your team to win, but if one of your star forwards isn't getting goals with any consistency then you're going to have a pretty difficult time securing wins. ZionSpartan needs to be the secondary carry of Coast on a regular basis if they are ever going to even threaten for a top three spot in NA.

  

Dignitas have no clue which direction to go in

Dignitas have been a confusing team across all three of the LCS splits. They have always had runs of understanding the meta and the champions to pick in a different way to other teams, allowing them to secure wins and remain relevant regardless of the level of specific players in their team. This split saw them finally drop off entirely though. Despite edging out the others in the bottom part of the top six, Dig seemed to be at their operational max right now.

  The only option seems to be a roster change, which they explored in removing scarra. Erasing that change and bringing him back hasn't fixed anything. Unless they are willing to rebuild entirely, which seems quite unlikely, then Dig have a lot more questions than answers right now. Do they look for Mid lane talent and hope that's enough to fix their problems? With more firepower would Dig's tactical approach put them consistently ahead of the likes of Curse and Coast, battling with CLG for the third spot? It's pretty tough to be certain right now.

  The only certainty for Dig right now is that while they don't know which direction in which to head, they can't remain where they are.

  

Curse are the best of the bad bunch, but that's about it

On paper it looks like a good sign that Curse were able to finish fourth overall in the split. Having spent only two weeks of the split inside the top four, and unable to secure more than a single winning week, Curse seemed destined to likely to be playing in the playoff relegation decider. Instead, they overcame Dignitas and got to play against both C9 and CLG, losing to both quite convincingly. There's nobody out there wondering if Curse are in position to threaten the top three teams, instead one can merely conclude that they are the best of the bad bunch of the five teams who aren't relevant in the title race.

  That Curse were threatened with elimination by Dig is a bad sign in and of itself, suggesting that they aren't even convincingly the fourth best team. Right now Curse, Dig and Coast all have fatal flaws that mean none can truly claim any supremacy over the others, in terms of strength against the overall field. For a team with as much money as Curse can boast, they are far from a team with an established identity that can execute on its win conditions, if it even truly understands what those are in each game.

  Photo credit: Riot Games

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