Online gaming is big, and with the spike in broadband Internet subscribers and all three next-generation systems making it a major part of their strategy, it only looks to be getting bigger. But how much bigger?

　　About four times bigger than it is today, according to industry-research firm DFC Intelligence. In its latest report, the firm has pegged the worldwide online market to effectively quadruple in the next five years, going from $3.4 billion last year to more than $13 billion in 2011.

　　Breaking that number down, DFC expects online gaming subscriptions to account for $6.8 billion worldwide, digital distribution to equal $5.4 billion, and advertising revenue to add up to $1 billion. It's important to note that the company's digital distribution estimate includes not only micropayments (like $3 to buy a new level in The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion), but also downloads of entire games (like Half-Life 2: Episode One through Valve's Steam service), whether they are played online or not.

　　DFC expects increasing penetration of broadband Internet service, a proliferation of PCs, and more connected consoles to drive growth, particularly in the area of massively multiplayer games and digital distribution. "Digital distribution and virtual item sales have started to do very well in certain Asian markets and these distribution models are expected to start having increased success on an international basis," DFC analyst Alexis Madrigal said in a statement.

　　Thus far, DFC says the online segment of the market has been held back by several factors. First of all, the PC has been the dominant online gaming platform, while some of the most popular games have been confined to consoles, which are typically online less often. DFC expects that issue to be addressed by the next-generation consoles' focus on online connectivity, with such services as Xbox Live and WiiConnect24.

　　Another issue noted by DFC is the lack of crossover international success for games. What works in the Korean market may not do as well in China, Japan, or the US. However, that also could be changing, as the firm notes that Vivendi Universal's World of Warcraft has been tremendously successful in a number of countries.