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It's finals time and Team Solomid will be face off against the defending champions Cloud 9 to determine the North American #1 Seed. Meanwhile, Curse and LMQ fight each other for the final world championship spot. We'll be predicting the results once again.
You can check out part one and two via the following links: Part One | Part Two
Staff | Prediction Rate |
---|---|
Nilu 'Dooraven' Kulasingham | 5-0 |
Daniel 'Spellsy' Biery | 4-1 |
Travis Gafford, Derek 'Kathix' Adams, Hunter Leigh, Daniel 'd1dx' Yordanov, Kelsey Moser | 3-2 |
Duncan 'Thorin' Shields | 2-3 |
In the history of the Cloud 9's formation, they have yet to lose a playoffs game. This includes their finals matches, which have previously also been against TSM.
Now, it is fair to say that last split's playoffs were played after a drastic patch change that negatively affected TSM's game, and the meta now favors them much more. Specifically, TSM does well when they get direct lane matchups. Yet despite this, C9 gave TSM the lanes they wanted in the finals for Spring Playoffs and still managed to destroy TSM where they lived.
TSM has also undergone changes to their roster since that fateful best of five. Notably, they have replaced their jungler and their support player with imports, Amazing and Lustboy. While most would argue that Amazing is an upgrade to TheOddOne, he's still no match for Meteos' pressure and farm game, and Lustboy might come with a mechanical advantage over LemonNation, but C9's support has proven his worth in C9's superior champion select phase. This is where TSM will start to lose; in their last series against LMQ, it took them a while to catch onto the importance of picks like Tristana, and against a team with a lot more flexibility and adaptability in champion select like C9, TSM doesn't stand a chance.
C9 might lose lanes early, but they'll beat TSM in team fighting, and their control of the map will give them a legup. C9 know their strengths, and they'll pick champions that carry them through to another pristine 3-0.
Aside from the mentality advantage from scrims, there are a few advantages TSM has in game that might get overlooked. Watching C9 in the semi finals, they seem to be a team that doesn't go for crazy plays in lane, instead they wait for objectives and win the teamfight there and then continue to press their advantage to a victory. This playstyle of waiting for mistakes from the opposing team and punishing them hard might not work as well against TSM as it did against Curse. TSM in my mind has always been a team that has a "don't lose lane, don't lose game" playstyle, where they play not to lose and then when it gets to mid-late game secure picks through vision control. This stifling playstyle might counter-act C9's reactive playstyle, giving C9 more trouble than an opponent like CRS. Also, if TSM takes what they learned from their last series and take prioritize champs like Tristana, they could have a chance at taking down the strongly-favored C9.
There is a clear distinction I would like to make here – I do not think Curse are inferior to their Chinese counterpart, despite the quick 3-0 the suffered against Cloud9. However, the play style and certain laners of LMQ swing the scales heavily in their favour. To begin with, XiaoWeiXiao mimicked Bjergsen perfectly even with the Dane being the best player on the server yesterday. In both victory and defeat, the star of the packed Chinese line-up was consistently performing and being a threat which could not be ignored.
In addition to XWX, the other two performers against TSM – Vasilii and Mor, will be the aces in the LMQ team. Unless IWillDominate invests a lot of time and effort into bot lane, I do not see Xpecial and Cop walking out of that lane heads-high. With regards to bot lane, I do not expect Curse to leave Tristana open for LMQ, a lesson which TSM learned the hard way.
Finally, the chaotic play of LMQ could prove to be the downfall of Curse should they succumb to it. Give XiaoWeiXiao or Vasilii just a taste of action and their blood will boil. LMQ will look to quickly establish their dominance via multiple skirmishes on the map and continue to dominate and force Curse into a reactive stance – the perfect scenario for the Chinese. The 2014 Season World Championships are just a best-of-five away and LMQ simply cannot wait.
Despite the LMQ's 5 game set versus TSM and the lopsidedness of Curse's games vs Cloud 9, I think the playstyle differences between the two teams should give an edge to curse. LMQ's hyper aggressive playstyle has so far struggled versus Curse in the regular season as Elephant on Fire posesses as 3-1 record vs the former LPL team. It's time to see if the adage of Curse getting 4th once per spit/playoffs remains true.