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　　The knockout stage of the 2014 World Championship has formed, and two halves of the bracket have set up dissimilar storylines. On one side, we have Samsung against North America. The other side all but belongs to China—with a catch. To advance to the finals, the Chinese teams will have to eliminate the third seed Korean team: NaJin White Shield (NWS).

　　With NWS losing the most games of any Korean team in Group Stage, many would-be pundits (read: redditors) have speculated that White Shield is by far the weakest team from the Korean Champions tournament this year. Up against what has historically looked like the second best region at international League of Legends events, the possibility exists that NWS could go down in a best of five to a Chinese team. At the same time, it’s also possible that NWS could advance to the finals without losing a single game to Edward Gaming (EDG), Star Horn Royal Club (SHRC), or OMG, let alone a best of five.

　　Two scenarios present itself. Is NaJin White Shield a wounded lion surrounded by a pack of voracious and calculating hyenas? Or are EDG, SHRC, and OMG lemmings poised to cast themselves from a Shield-shaped cliff one at a time? The only way to guess is to go through each faceoff and figure out where teams can beat Shield—and where they lose.

　　

Team OMG

Solo laners capable of duking it out with Baek “Save” Youngjin and Yu “Ggoong” Byeongjun

　　Similar top-down style

　　Lin “Loveling” Ye’s performance over Cho “watch” Jaegeol in Group Stage

　　- Worst Chinese team to deal with kite compositions

　　- Most questionable champion select

　　- Poor minion management

　　Chance to Advance*: 15%

　　Chance at One Game*: 65%

　　If OMG had continued to hone their form from Week 7 of LPL Summer, and NWS played the Quarterfinals exhibiting a level similar to their Group Stage showing, this set wouldn’t be a contest. It would be a seamless Chinese victory.

　　OMG, however, is a pallid semblance of the OMG they were toward the end of the regular LPL Summer Season. Additionally, expecting NWS not to give a better performance playing a familiar best of five in Busan, Korea, would be as unreasonable as assuming OMG will miraculously improve their weaknesses in the support position and beef up their cohesion in a week. In all likelihood, this set will go decisively in NWS’ favor.

　　That doesn’t make this head-to-head uninteresting. Stylistically, The first, second, and third seed Korean and Chinese teams are eerily similar. Edward Gaming prefers to stall out games for well coordinated team fights like Samsung Blue, Star Horn Royal Club probably wishes they could execute their early smash style as crisply as Samsung White, and OMG’s strengths and weaknesses in lane are nearly a mirror image of NaJin White Shield’s.

　　OMG and NWS both rely on powerful solo lane carries and inconsistent junglers with performances ranging from spectacular to meh. Their AD carries are reliably “just okay” with occasional standout performances. If Hu “Cloud” Zhenwei remained the support for OMG, the similarities would extend perfectly, as both he and Kang “GorillA” Beomhyeon are standout Thresh players with limited champion pools and a penchant for assisting jungle invades. As it is, OMG’s starting support Fang “Dada777” Hongri is entirely outclassed.

　　

Champ Select

Both teams will look for Ryze in an early rotation of champion select, as it is a powerful signature champion of both Save and Gao “Gogoing” Diping. That said, OMG has a plethora of worthy candidates for a red side ban, including Thresh and Lee Sin. NWS also might prefer to let Gogoing have Ryze over a champion like Maokai if it means forcing a hard engage tool onto Dada777, who whiffed a high proportion of his crucial skillshots in Group Stage.

　　Both teams have received criticism for the red side champion select. NWS seems to over-prioritize strong solo lane picks, sometimes to the detriment of a cohesive composition, and I would be lying if I said I understood all of OMG’s champion select decisions lately.

　　

The Pitfall

The best guide for interpreting this series from the NaJin White Shield perspective probably stems from their first game against the KT Arrows in the Korean Regionals. Aside from the Jayce pick, the Ryze, Kha’Zix, Tristana, Braum composition is very similar to something OMG would like to run. The biggest criticism they often get is the reliance of their style to have hard engage, but they often fail to bring engage on more than their support. This type of composition is easily counterable by the kiting style NWS brought out in response with Nidalee, Elise, Orianna, Twitch, and Thresh. NWS could poke out KTA and avoid most engagements. Then, when the game went long as a result, NWS manipulated minion waves to force KTA into losing decisions.

　　If OMG’s second game against Fnatic in the Group Stage is any indication, OMG doesn’t have a good response for the fabled NWS “winions,” as potentially the best use of winions in the group stage was on the part of OMG against themselves. They gave up multiple inhibitors in trade for Baron without FNC making a concentrated effort to force these decisions.

　　

The Advantage

OMG has a few things going for them, however, that might allow them to take a game or two from NWS. Both teams rely on the ability of the top and jungle duo to snowball the top laner ahead and spread leads through invades, roams, or teleports. In this tournament so far, Gogoing and Loveling have performed with a bit more consistency than Save and watch. Loveling did the highest proportion of his team’s damage to champions relative to any other jungler in Group Stage, and if watch is a weakness of the team, Loveling's natural inclination to deep ward and solo his opponent will put OMG in good stead.

　　In addition, Yu “Cool” Jiajun’s near limitless champion pool—his failures on Yasuo withstanding—will allow him to counter-pick whatever assassin Ggoong chooses, or to roam, which is his natural style. Cool typically needs a ramp time to fall in line since he has returned to competitive LoL from his split off, and for this reason, the best of five format is OMG’s forte. It isn’t uncommon for them to drop the first one or two games of a series only for Cool to roll up his sleeves and decide that he needs to challenge the gold per minute record.

　　Cool isn’t the only one. OMG’s biggest strength lately has been in the ability of any of their four main members to rise up and solo carry a game under pressure. Even Guo "san" Junliang in Regionals made his mark with with a 20 KDA Kog’Maw game. In general, Gogoing, Loveling, Cool, and san all had extremely even damage to champion statistics, showing off their value to the team in different circumstances.

　　

Bottom Line

After an initial burst of success, however, OMG will struggle to close. In the past, OMG has been known for their well-executed dive compositions, but with Dada777 and their general communication flagging, OMG has been hesitant to play their own game. As a result, they have whiled away advantages, even with tremendous leads. This will play directly into NWS’ favor, and they’ll use the minions and late scaling of their solo carries to slowly stamp out OMG’s base.

　　

Star Horn Royal Club

Surprising hard and fast playstyle

　　Bottom lane capable of thoroughly abusing NWS' weakest lane

　　Best Chinese team to deal with splitting

　　- Significantly outclassed solo lanes

　　- Prone to getting picked off/poor vision control

　　- Lack of adaptability in BO5

　　Chance to Advance*: 25%

　　Chance at One Game*: 75%

　　If Star Horn Royal Club wins a best of five against Edward Gaming, they will advance to the semifinals and play the winner of OMG vs NaJin White Shield. Given the low likelihood that OMG will advance, NWS is SHRC’s most likely competitor in this case. I feel confident that, should these two teams meet in the semifinals, StarHorn Royal Club will take at least one game off NaJin White Shield. Despite their overall superior play relative to OMG in the Group Stage, however, they don’t have a much higher chance of taking the series.

　　One of my biggest criticisms of SHRC throughout their regular season run has been their one-dimensional playstyle. They are reliant on key champion picks to carry off their game plans, and if they fail to secure the early bottom lane leads they thrive upon, they often wander through the mid game without a solid plan. SHRC has been known to make comebacks off raw mechanical skill and persistence, but this event is unlikely if the mechanical skill of their opposition is also high.

　　

Champ Select

It’s easy to pick the top laner, the jungler, or the mid laner of SHRC and ban them out. Since Jiang “Cola” Na has been a non-factor in almost all scenarios exempting a few of his recent Group Stage games, banning his key picks is a nearly worthless strategy, especially against Save who shouldn’t struggle against a Cola playing his comfort picks. Most teams either decide to focus Lei “corn” Wen or Choi “inSec” Inseok during blue side ban phase.

　　If InSec isn’t given a stealth champion or Lee Sin, he is easily punished for deep engagements without escapes. Yet teams like Edward Gaming, who often have strong enough vision control to deal with inSec early on or prefer to 2v1 swap against Jian “Uzi” Zihao and Yoon “Zero” Kyungsup, will favor making corn’s presence a non-factor in the mid lane. In response, SHRC should look to heavily target the top or mid lane with bans to make life easier for their solo laners. GorillA's Thresh could also be a target if SHRC are looking to go all-out in punishing NWS’ bottom lane.

　　

The Pitfall

Star Horn Royal Club likes to dive. They like to fight. They like to win bottom lane. Making any of these difficult to achieve could spell doom for Star Horn. One of the best tactics against SHRC for NWS would be to lane swap, as it would force inSec into a more predictable jungle path. In the past, SHRC has wasted a significant amount of resources attempting to get 3v1 dives, resulting in deaths for either Uzi, Zero, or inSec, who had the highest death tolls on their team throughout LPL Summer.

　　Of course, the lane swap isn’t NWS’ favorite mode. They love to give the advantage to Save in the 1v1, which means this game will become a race to relevancy for both Save and Uzi. If GorillA is given Thresh, it could put a definite wrench in SHRC’s plans. If Save loses a couple of his signature champions, and Cola is given a comfortable champion he can survive under tower with, like Irelia, this new Group Stage buffed Cola could stand a chance of staving off the assault.

　　Things get tricky for SHRC later on. Whether Uzi wins the arms race or not, NWS is used to stalling out an early loss and looking to force picks. If they can remove SHRC’s primary carry at the start of a fight, they can win games as seamlessly as Edward Gaming did in the Quarterfinals.

　　In addition, Lee “Zefa” Jaemin and GorillA, no doubt like san and Dada777 of OMG, are used to being targeted by the more aggressive bottom lanes in Korea while their top and mid laners go to work, and they will likely have a solution to the Uzi problem planned. In fact, to get a gauge for NWS’ advantages in this set, one need look no further than SHRC’s best of fives against OMG in Playoffs. OMG’s long ramp up time allowed SHRC to win the first couple games of the set, but OMG adapted well while SHRC continued to play the same style, leading to a 2-0 BO5 head-to-head between OMG and SHRC. With NWS looking cleaner, they should be able to find victories in fewer games.

　　

The Advantage

Even so, SHRC has a slight advantage against NWS over OMG. In the Group Stage, they have looked much more collected as a team, and when they lost two best of fives to OMG, they appeared out of sorts as a result of a lack of scrim practice leading up to Playoffs. If SHRC ward well and don’t leave many gaps, they can potentially use a fast strategy more than once.

　　Another oddity comes in SHRC’s Baron control. They did not drop a Baron their entire Group Stage, and ended the Taipei stage with the most Barons of any team in any group—a strange statistic for an early game focused team. Part of this has been the result of their smart Baron calls throughout the tournament. Even in their losing game against Team SoloMid where sloppy play and a lack of wards cost them, SHRC held onto the game with Baron pickups. When NWS becomes relevant and starts looking for skirmishes, SHRC might compensate with a smart Baron call.

　　The general tendency of Chinese teams to over-focus on Baron could lead to problems against NWS given their strong minion wave control and ability to force teams to choose between Barons and inhibitors. Because Cola will split push considerably more than the top laners of either OMG or Edward Gaming, SHRC has a unique advantage against NWS that the other teams don’t. With a large early lead and the ability to send an answer to a stray wave, SHRC might set their sights on more than one victory this best of five.

　　

Bottom Line

Star Horn are very likely to take a game from a NaJin White Shield team that focuses a lot on solo lane scaling in picks and bans with their early assaults. The problem comes when SHRC fail to adapt their style and NWS becomes wise. SHRC plays the same game whether they're ahead or behind, and NWS knows how to work the map. SHRC might have an advantage over other Chinese teams when it comes to split-pushing, but they'll be unused to minion mind gaming and two hyper scaling laners built to take out an over-extending Uzi. SHRC's stagnant strategy and relatively weak solo laners will block them from coming away with the series.

　　

Edward Gaming

Impeccable zone control and team fighting

　　Thrives off safe early game farm laning

　　Emphasis on waveclear

　　- Poor early game across the board

　　- Unpredictable form after weak Group Stage

　　- Overemphasis on vision denial relative to vision gains

　　Chance to Advance*: 40%

　　Chance at One Game*: 80%

　　Edward Gaming is nearly always the bane of the LPL analyst. Their sloppy form during the LPL regular season in both Spring and Summer has left me doubting them going into all of their major tournaments. In their LPL Spring debut, they looked to be a strong team, but just barely. It almost seemed as if they were lucky to continuously win games from major gold deficits ranging as high as ten thousand gold. They squeaked into second place in the regular season. Poor pressure from jungler Ming "Clearlove" Kai saw what looked like a promising squadron flag just behind OMG.

　　Then they plowed through the International Esports Tournament and LPL Spring Playoffs. Unable to close games in less than 40 minutes against Invictus Gaming in the regular season, EDG was suddenly forcing iG into 26 minute surrenders. It seemed as if EDG has finally "clicked," and they picked up their first two first place finishes in major tournaments this year. They played their first handful of sets in 2014 LPL Summer with the same strong pressure from Clearlove. He seemed to be virtually everywhere, giving his lanes advantages that exacerbated the effectiveness of EDG's tight team fighting.

　　It happened again. Shortly after, in their first best of two against Star Horn Royal Club in LPL Summer, EDG's Clearlove failed to make his presence known. EDG fell behind, barely closing out the first game, then splitting even after SHRC forced a win by backdooring from the dark bottom side of the map. With EDG continuing to flag, it seemed almost miraculous that they finished the regular split in first place. In all likelihood, they wouldn't have had World Elite not collapsed under the weight of the changing meta and had OMG not downgraded their support at the finish line. Even so, EDG smashed through Playoffs one more time. Clearlove turned on the pressure when it counted, and EDG's team fighting and vision games exploded against LGD Gaming, OMG, and finally Star Horn Royal Club in the Regional finals.

　　If you look at EDG's performance in the Group Stage in Taipei, it's similar to how they played during the LPL regular seasons. Clearlove was a near non-factor. EDG picked sloppily and struggled against lanes they shouldn't have. Again, they barely squeaked by in a position to make a path to the Quarterfinals. If there's one thing I've learned, however, it's not to be deceived by EDG's camouflage. When EDG wants to turn it on, they will—and there's no excuse like a chance at the 2014 World Championship Finals to do so. If EDG plays their game the way they've done in LPL Playoffs twice in a row, they'll mow through Star Horn and make a convincing case against NaJin White Shield.

　　

Champ Select

If NWS does their homework on EDG, the first tell could well be the Ziggs focus. Even out of meta, mid laner Ceng "U" Long has picked up target bans for the champion. Despite having insisted he doesn't enjoy playing Ziggs, it's a cornerstone of EDG's playstyle that can often sink or swim their compositions. If EDG falls behind, a wave clearing mid lane champion stalls out the game, and an area of effect ultimate puts them back in a team fight. Often keeping U off the likes of Syndra, Orianna, or Ziggs is the first step to success against EDG.

　　Apart from that, EDG will be happiest if they don't have to deal with split-pushers. Though Tong "Koro1" Yang seems to have a knack for backing and pushing out waves at the crucial moment, he won't do well in the 1v1 against Save. Despite this, he's in the past been capable of mitigating the destructive power of top lane carries like Gogoing, barely falling behind and making himself useful in team fights. If Save or Ggoong snowball and become a split-pushing nuisances, however, this strategy becomes untenable. Kassadin, Nidalee, and Zed bans will be smart choices from EDG.

　　

The Pitfall

Naturally, the biggest pitfall of all is Edward Gaming failing to improve from the last we saw them in Taipei. NWS will make short work of a scattered EDG with only a few improvements of their own. Zhu "NaMei" Jiawen and Feng "Fzzf" Zhuojun would not be able to stay relevant against solo lane monsters, and if EDG continues to play alien compositions they cannot execute, little will remain of the wreckage.

　　Even in top form, however, EDG will receive warning signs. NWS isn't the epitome of an early game snowballing team, but it wouldn't take much for Koro1's poor laning phase to give Save an edge he can pressure. Clearlove and Koro1 seem to have an unspoken agreement that Koro1 is on his own and should spend his farm on wards to fend off the jungler. If watch shows up to play, Koro1's caution could easily backfire.

　　Similarly, Ggoong may make his presence known in other lanes on high mobility assassins—something that historically has been far from U's tendency to stay in lane and farm. There's a reason U had the second most frequent gold advantages at ten minutes for mid laners in group stage; he isn't the biggest fan of leaving. All these factors put pressure on Clearlove to perform. If he can have one of his legendary Playoff games, he can at the very least babysit NaMei and pick up dragons to keep EDG relevant. There may also simply too much to micromanage.

　　One massive problem for EDG, however, is their emphasis on vision denial over securing their own vision—especially on the top side of the map. They will often over pink Baron and leave the bottom half bare. Again, a split-pushing Save will take full advantage against a Baron-focused team fight composition coming out of EDG if they devote too much attention to Baron. Add in the fact that NWS had the best vision denial game of any team in Group stages with 42% of opponent wards killed, EDG has a recipe for an uphill battle.

　　

The Advantage

EDG seems to have more obstacles to overcome than any other Chinese team set to battle NWS, but they still have the best chance of knocking them out of the tournament. For anyone who watched Group Stage and not LPL Playoffs, this claim seems laughable. For anyone who watched LPL Playoffs, but not the Group Stage, it goes without saying. EDG has many natural tendencies that counter NWS' playstyle, and their own execution is beyond that of SHRC and OMG when they're playing their best.

　　NWS, though they can snowball and did so in many cases during their Regionals run to get into Worlds, isn't a team that likes to play for the early game. In Group Stage and throughout much of their time as a team, Shield has been a group to stall and play for an early game with solo laners that scale well. Edward Gaming is happy to play for the late game, but their own carries play a selfless game; they expect to and are used to getting outscaled as long as U can hit that one ability to level the playing field in a fight, and Koro1 can zone out the devastating damage dealers of the opposition by positioning himself optimally in the fray.

　　Clearlove can outdamage Watch and serve as a second member of the cleanup crew next to NaMei if left to his own devices. A few ganks will keep his lanes in the game, and dragons will serve as a buffer. Even in their less than optimal form, EDG had the most dragons of Group Stage. Let's be clear. Shield will not want to 5v5 EDG in the mid game.

　　Instead they will look to manipulate waves naturally and pull out kiting compositions. EDG doesn't fall prey to the same traps of OMG, and will bring plenty of engage and waveclear. Even if Shield doesn't want to fight EDG, EDG will have ways to make them fight. If they can execute this strategy as well as they have in the past, EDG has a chance of making the World Championship Finals.

　　Bottom Line

　　If Edward Gaming comes prepared to play on Sunday, they should have no trouble circumventing Star Horn Royal Club with better adaptation in a best of five. This will likely set up EDG to face NWS in what might be the closest altercation between a Korean and non-Korean squad. I still cast NWS as the favorites, but not by a massive margin. EDG's powerful team fighting and smarter compositions replete with wave clear and engage give them a better go at NWS than their second and third seed compatriots.

　　At the same time, however, EDG might not play well at all. Perhaps EDG wasn't meant for international competition, and they'll simply falter as the biggest disappointment of this year's Worlds. In that case, an all-Korean final is nearly assured.

　　*Note: All percentages are merely speculative and a result of my assessment of the chances Chinese teams have in the matchup.