The next-generation DVD format war looks to be one of attrition, with ground gained one day and lost the next for both sides. Sony's Blu-ray and Toshiba's HD-DVD technologies both offer dramatically increased capacity over standard DVDs, and both have been vying to become the next standard of choice.

　　Yesterday, CNET News reported a score for Blu-ray. Neither side has launched its players to the consumer market yet, but analyst firm Forrester has already predicted Blu-ray will claim victory in the coming war.

　　"After a long and tedious run-up to the launch, it is now clear to Forrester that the Sony-led Blu-ray format will win," Ted Schadler, a Forrester analyst, said in a report. "But unless the HD-DVD group abandons the field, it will be another two years before consumers are confident enough of the winner to think about buying a new-format DVD player."

　　Schadler's assessment was swayed by a number of factors, including the recent news that HD-DVD-supporting movie studio Paramount had decided to make Blu-ray discs as well and Sony's plans to include Blu-ray drives in its PlayStation 3 console. Schadler also said he now expects the cost of manufacturing Blu-ray discs, formerly estimated to be significantly higher than HD-DVD costs, would wind up being only pennies more per disc.

　　The momentum would swing back later in the day as Blu-ray supporter Hewlett-Packard asked Sony to incorporate some HD-DVD-specific features into its new format. Specifically, it wanted the mandatory managed copy feature that lets users copy a DVD to their computer's hard drive and distribute it across home networks, and support for iHD, a technology allowing for new interactive features that's announced as part of Microsoft's upcoming Vista operating system.

　　Maureen Weber, general manager of personal storage in HP's personal-systems group, explained the request to Reuters. "We're still supporting Blu-ray, but we're very serious that we want these technologies," she said. "If in the end they're supported in one and then not the other, we'll have to make a choice."

　　While Toshiba and Sony have huge financial investments riding on these technologies (and a potentially huge windfall if one format claims dominance), both formats might end up losing. In a speech last week at Howard University in Washington, DC, Microsoft chairman Bill Gates told the crowd that the way of the future is neither HD-DVD nor Blu-ray, but digital distribution. "The format that's under discussion right now, HD versus Blu-ray, that's simply the last physical format we'll ever have," Gates said. "Even videos in the future will either be on a disc in your pocket or over the Internet and therefore far more convenient for you."